Business Newsletter March 10, 2025

Real Estate Business Newsletter | March 2025

 

 

 

LOS ANGELES WILDFIRES 
Have you been affected by the Palisades Fire or Eaton Fire? 
Do you know your rights as a renter or homeowner? Do you need help with all the paperwork? If so, please email and we will connect you to the best wildfire attorneys in the state.
Angelenos Square Off Over Affordable Housing in Palisades. Developers want to replace burned gas station with an eight-story apartment building.
How CA Rebuilds After LA Wildfires Litmus Test For Recovery. Wildfires in Altadena and Pacific Palisades intensified California’s housing crisis, raising the stakes for rebuilding efforts. The state loosened zoning laws to allow more housing, but resistance remains strong in affluent communities, particularly to multifamily development. Residents are resisting higher housing density, fearing displacement and rapid neighborhood changes.
COMMERCIAL 
Blackstone Raised Record-Matching $8B CRE Debt Fund. 
Blackstone successfully raised an $8B commercial property debt fund, matching a record set in 2020. The fund will be deployed across North America, Europe, and Australia, focusing on property loans and purchasing existing loans. Blackstone’s approach includes partnering with banks to take on the riskier, higher-yield portion of real estate debt. Despite a challenging fundraising environment in 2024, the overall CRE market is recovering, especially in debt markets and sales.
INVESTMENT
Rental Market Shifts, Sun Belt Decline Slows as Midwest Rises.
Rent in New Haven, CT increased the most while Durham, NC saw the steepest rent decrease. Median one-bedroom rents have increased 2.9% in the 12 months through Feb. to reach $1,525 across the country. Among major markets, New York City has posted the highest prices for the category, at $4,330. San Francisco was the second-most expensive market for one-bedroom median rents at $3,140 and Jersey City, New Jersey, was third at $3,050.
OFFICE
Massive Federal Office Space Cuts Affect $15.6B in CRE Loans.
The Trump administration’s recent directive to the General Services Administration (GSA) to significantly reduce federal office leases has sent ripples through the commercial real estate market. This cost-cutting measure, aimed at trimming as many as 300 leases per day, represents a potential shift in billions of dollars of office market value.
DOGE’s Federal Office Lease Cuts Could Be $5B Nightmare.
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has already cut over $170M in federal office leases, and up to $5B in annual reductions are expected. An estimated $12B in CMBS loans tied to government-leased properties is at risk due to lease terminations. Washington, DC, faces the biggest impact, with nearly 25% of expiring GSA leases in the city. DOGE has already trimmed 3M SF of space, with another 74M SF set to expire during Trump’s term.
RESIDENTIAL
Are Home Values About to Fall? It Depends on the Location. 
The supply of houses for sale is recovering much faster in some parts of the country than in others. Stark regional differences are opening up in the housing market. Buyers have the power to demand big price cuts in some parts of the country, but still face bidding wars in others.
US Condo Investments Slide to Lowest Level Since 2012. 
Condo investor purchases dropped 13% YoY in Q4, sinking to the lowest level for that quarter since 2012. Florida saw the steepest decline, particularly in cities like Orlando, Tampa, and Miami, due to hurricanes and rising insurance fees. The Florida state law mandating structural studies and maintenance funding in older condos has led to a surge in listings, pushing prices down significantly.
RETAIL
Las Vegas Retail Sales Up to $245M in Q4, Highest Since 2022.
Las Vegas’ retail sector has been enjoying healthy demand, led by sales activity, which hit a volume of about $245.55 million, accounting for roughly 616,000 square feet in the fourth quarter. Not only is that figure up significantly from $124.16 million and 132,000 square feet from the same period in 2023, but retail sales have hit their highest levels in the city since the fourth quarter of 2022.
INDUSTRIAL   
BlackRock Inks $22.8B Deal for 43 Ports Worldwide.
BlackRock led a $22.8B acquisition of Panama Canal ports, including Balboa and Cristóbal, marking a shift in control from China-linked interests to US investors. The acquisition is in response to US national security concerns raised by the Trump administration about Chinese involvement in the Panama ports. The deal addresses the strategic importance of the Panama Canal, which handles 40% of container traffic crossing the waterway.
Asian Logistic Providers Target Inland Empire as Tariffs Loom.
Third-party logistics (3PL) providers based in Asia have been scooping up large warehouse leases in Southern California as they brace for higher tariffs on goods shipped to the U.S. Retailers and wholesalers upped their foreign imports into the U.S. last year in anticipation of potential tariffs by the Trump Administration, driving a surge in demand for U.S. coastal industrial facilities.
Banks Lend $2B For 100-Acre Utah-Based AI Data Center. 
Banks originated a $2B construction loan to build a state-of-the-art data center in West Jordan, Utah, just outside Salt Lake City. The already fully leased center will provide 175 megawatts of power, enough for 175K homes. Innovative cooling technology reduces water use in the arid region. Developers face longer timelines to secure power, reflecting the scale of modern data centers.
MULTI-FAMILY 
Multifamily Completions Expected Amid Slow Construction.
Despite slower construction, US multifamily is poised to deliver the second-highest new supply since 2008 with an increased forecast for multifamily completions in 2025 and 2026 by 3.3% and 11.5%. The affordable sector is expected to see 16.3% more units by 2027 than in 2019, while market-rate and partially affordable properties will have less new supply. Single-family rentals are projected to go up by 188.5% over 2019 levels by 2027, revealing a growing shift in housing demand. Multifamily completion times are at their highest levels in years, with garden and mid-rise averaging 23.1 and 28 months, while high-rises take 31.3 months.
Community Bank Multifamily Loans Are Feeling Distressed.
US multifamily loans held by community banks are seeing a significant uptick in delinquency and realized losses. Over $6.1B in community bank multifamily loans are delinquent, adding up to a 0.97% delinquency rate within a $629.7B loan pool. With $500B in CRE loans maturing this year, multifamily is heading for a refinancing cliff, and distress could reach 14–15% by year-end.
CITY
SPOTLIGHT
Philadelphia is Top Destination for Migrating New Yorkers.
Philadelphia surpassed Miami as the top destination for migrating New Yorkers, thanks to affordable housing and easy transportation. Housing costs are a major factor, with median rents for a one-bedroom apartment in Philly at $1.53K compared to $4.28K in NYC. Suburban Philly rental demand is surging, with 95% occupancy rates and 10 prospective tenants per available unit.
NYSE plans for Chicago branch in Dallas to be “NYSE Texas”.
This is the latest entrant into a fast-moving flight of exchanges to the Lone Star State.
Cal Poly SLO has partnered with FullStack Modular.
Plans for the development of 4,200 new student housing beds in San Luis Obispo, Calif. The project will consist of nine eight- and nine-story buildings, with the first phase expected to come online next year. In addition to new student housing, the $1 billion plan calls for refurbishing existing residence halls.
OFF-THE-WALL
CA Supreme Court Upholds Validity Retail Co-Tenancy Clauses.
These provisions allow tenants to pay lower “substitute” rental rates after an anchor tenant at a retail center stops operating there. The ruling sets a precedent that could reverberate nationwide as an epidemic of store closings by retail chains is projected to shutter up to 15,000 outlets in the U.S. this year.
We hope this information helps keep you up to date on the real estate market. Please call or email if you have any thoughts. I would love to hear from you!
Cell: 310-383-6239
Email: Email@REBNC.com
Best Regards,
Andy